Flooring in Florida: Is This the Start of Something Good for the Housing Market?

by Alex Villacorta, Contributor for Forbes.com Lifestyle 1/31/2012 @ 4:13PM

Have we turned the corner? Without a doubt, that is the most popular question I get about the housing market. No one can be 100% positive at this point, but a good start for any recovery is when markets build a “floor,”or foundation for which the fundamentals of price appreciation can be built. Given the positive signs we’ve seen recently, I started looking for patterns in various markets to determine if a recovery is starting, and if flooring is being laid anywhere.

After publishing our 2011 Year End Market Report and 2012 Forecast, some interesting trends were discovered in Florida. In 2011, all four Florida metros (Jacksonville, Orlando, Miami and Tampa) ranked in the highest 15 of all 50 metros for price growth over the year. In addition, our November 2011 market report showed three out of four of Florida’s metro markets in the highest performing markets on a quarterly basis. Finally, the 2012 forecast showed each of the areas continuing the trend of improving home values, while leading the country in gains.

It is important to note these markets received more than their fair share of price depreciation after the market peaked in 2006. Orlando had a 63% decline from the peak to the bottom of the market in 2009, and Miami’s prices slid 65% over the same period, so there is a lot of ground to make up.

So with that, it was time to dig deeper and see if flooring was being laid, and more importantly, if a clear pattern could be identified for what an early stage of a recovery looks like.

The first step was finding the fundamental drivers for what pushes prices up. Are there clear variables or consistencies across these markets, and would these variables drive similar market behaviors outside the sunshine state?

Both Orlando and Miami’s growth is being built on a foundation of increases in low tier and distressed home sales. Both these markets show:

• Substantial improvement in values in their lower priced segments – below $70,000
• Modest improvement in distressed home sale prices across all price tiers
• Declining levels of distressed sales as a percentage of total sales

In Orlando, the lower priced segment experienced a whopping 19.8% increase in prices in 2011, while on a price per square foot basis their distressed only sales increased by 4.4%. These growth rates are significantly above the U.S. average.

Low tier home values in Miami jumped 15.28% in 2011, as compared to the top segment of that market which only returned a 1.8% yearly gain. And again, on a price per square foot basis, the distressed only segment across all price tiers saw healthy price increases of 4.9% through the year.

Now while the gains in the distressed segment were not as strong as that of the low price tiers in both markets, just the fact that REO sale values were increasing at all is important. A recovery in the distressed segment, regardless of the magnitude, creates a resistance to future losses across all price tiers as it is this segment that has created much of the pressure on prices over the past several years.

Along with the upward movement in price for the distressed market, the overall saturation of REO sales decreased in both Miami and Orlando. In Miami distressed sales as a percentage of all sales went down to 31% from 44% at the start of the year, well off the high point of over 50% seen in mid-2009. Orlando experienced a similar trend with current distressed sales representing 25% of total sales, a substantial improvement over the rate of 49% at the start of the year, and below the high of over 54% seen in mid-2009. These markets are coming off extreme highs in the percentage of REO sales down to levels closer to the US average of 25.3%. As these numbers are at, or even above the U.S. average, it is the movement of REO saturation that is extremely important, more so than the actual figure. The substantial decrease in REO saturation, especially in Orlando, is certainly helping prices to recover.

Another factor we analyzed was the type of transaction, and it appears that Miami in particular, has found a strong appetite for investing along with their appetite for spicy food. About 59% of Miami’s transactions were conducted with cash, followed by Orlando’s 48%. This is a significant increase from the national rate holding right around 30% over the last year as reported by the National Association of Realtors.

For 2012, we forecast anticipated growth of 8.7% and 5.6%, for Orland and Miami, respectively and expect to see each of these markets among the best performers for the year.

So, could the presence of low tier price increases, distressed home sale price increases, smaller percentages of distressed sale levels, and high levels of investor activity be what a floor looks like? Is it a blueprint for what a broader market recovery looks like as well? It seems very likely.

If it is, keep your eyes on Phoenix. Currently this market is showing strong growth in the low tier segment, notable gains in distressed sale prices and lower levels of distressed sales overall. We’ll continue reporting on other markets that reflect this same pattern in our monthly Market Reports.

I can’t ever remember a time when installing new flooring sounded this interesting.

Original Post: http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexvillacorta/2012/01/31/flooring-in-florida-is-this-the-start-of-something-good-for-the-housing-market/

Economists See Ways to Aid Housing Market

By NICK TIMIRAOS  for wsj.com

The underpinnings of a housing recovery are hiding in plain sight: sharp price declines, low mortgage rates and rising rents have made owning more affordable than renting in a growing number of markets.

Yet housing largely remains in a funk. The prospect of continued price declines—led by the oversupply of foreclosed homes—has deterred some potential buyers, while others can't qualify for loans.

Many economists, including some at the Federal Reserve, are urging President Barack Obama to do more, and the president will be "aggressive on housing" in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, his housing secretary said last week. The administration is already rebooting a refinancing initiative and putting finishing touches on programs to convert some foreclosed properties into rentals.

View Interactive

What more can be done? Economists cite three broad ideas that could advance a housing recovery.

First, local investors could play a greater role in spurring a recovery in their own communities. Some mom-and-pop investors have begun to buy up excess housing stock and rent it out.

These buyers are important to clear the large "shadow supply" of foreclosures. Banks owned around 440,000 homes at the end of October, but an additional 1.9 million loans were in some stage of foreclosure, according to Barclays Capital.

While there's no shortage of investor demand in many markets, financing remains an obstacle. In 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the main funders of mortgages, faced soaring losses from speculators and reduced to four from 10 the number of loans they would guarantee to any one owner. Fannie now backs as many as 10 loans, but some banks have kept lower limits.

"If that number were raised...to 25, you would very quickly start whittling down this very big backlog," said Lewis Ranieri, the mortgage-bond pioneer, in a speech last fall. He said loans should be made on conservative terms that include 30% or 35% down payments.

Today's investors differ from the speculators who earlier bought on the prospect of ever-rising values that inflated the real-estate bubble. In contrast, today's mostly all-cash buyers estimate values based on market rents. But economists say because they are underfunded and often the sole buyers, they are driving hard bargains that have homes selling below their replacement costs.

The mortgage-finance companies and their regulator "are ignoring the market fundamentals of who the buyers are and where the money is," said Tim Rood, a partner at the Collingwood Group, a housing-finance consultancy. "Right now, investors are treated like pariahs. You want to clear some inventory? Finance them."

For the past four years, prices of foreclosed and traditional homes fell in tandem, but in recent months, a new pattern has emerged. U.S. home prices were down 4.3% from one year ago in November. But after stripping out foreclosures and other "distressed" sales, prices were down just 0.6%, according to data firmCoreLogic.

Lawmakers also could consider eliminating capital-gains taxes on properties bought as a longer-term investment and converted to rentals as well as allowing them to accelerate the depreciation of those properties, said William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

"We need to re-establish equilibrium. I don't want to see another spike in house prices, but the homeownership rate is dropping and we also don't want to see rental spikes," Prof. Wheaton said.

Second, policy makers could restore clarity to lending by finalizing a clutch of pending regulations. The government's extraordinary steps to rescue Fannie and Freddie helped prevent a cataclysmic shock but it has made no real movement to overhaul the companies and the nation's broader housing-finance machinery.

While prospects are dim for a revamp before the election, smaller steps to establish certainty around the rules for lending as well as handling soured mortgage loans could make banks less stingy with credit.

For example, Fannie and Freddie are pushing banks to repurchase any defaulted loans that they can prove ran afoul of underwriting standards, even if the loan went bad for another reason, such as job loss. The "blanket repurchase regime" has led banks "to focus only on the lowest-risk customers," said William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve, in a speech this month.

Third, a growing number of economists are warning that the overhang of debt in some of the most distressed housing markets will linger for years, particularly if more borrowers default. They say mortgage investors and banks should consider reducing debt for more troubled homeowners.

Principal write-downs remain controversial and have high upfront costs. But the problem of negative equity looks unlikely to cure itself: In markets such as Las Vegas, more than six in 10 borrowers owe more than their homes are worth.

Banks are rightly worried that widespread debt forgiveness could encourage more borrowers to default, but several proposals seek to limit that moral hazard. Prof. Wheaton said investors in the loans should be given equity stakes in homes in order to deter all but the most desperate borrowers from seeking relief, and that relief should be limited to borrowers who are deeply underwater.

"This needs to be a shared responsibility," he said. "For borrowers silly enough to borrow enough at the top of the market, there was a lender stupid enough to lend."

Principal write-downs could also be done on an "earned" basis, where borrowers receive relief only if they stay current on their loans, said Daniel Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, which has employed the technique when buying distressed mortgages.

Even then, write-downs will remain under-used until regulators or lawmakers simultaneously deal with the second mortgages, which are primarily held by banks, sitting behind many underwater first mortgages.

Mustering the political will to take any of these three steps wouldn't be easy. Given the state of the market, "there isn't a solution which will make everyone love you and cost no money," Mr. Ranieri says.

Indeed, no single idea will fix all of housing's problems. Many involve taking on more risk or rewarding bad behavior.

Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com

Original Post: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577173001251941984.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews

Dimon on Housing: ‘No One Is in Charge’

By Nick Timiraos

Bloomberg News

Jamie Dimon, chief executive of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

The government and the banking industry needs to get serious about fixing the housing market’s problems, but there’s no one leading the charge, said Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., during the bank’s quarterly conference call on Friday.

“I would convene all the people involved in the business. I would close the door. I would stay there until we resolved a bunch of these issues so we could have a more healthy mortgage market,” he said. “You could fix all this if someone was in charge.”

Mr. Dimon ticked off a list of unresolved issues, including foreclosure delays, the fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, conflicts of interest between owners and servicers of first mortgages and second mortgages, and pending rules from the Dodd-Frank Act that will establish new rules of the road for mortgages that are pooled into bonds.

“There is no one really in charge of all of this. It is just kind of sitting there,” he said. A “holistic” approach to tackle those issues could lead to a faster recovery in housing, he said, endorsing the sentiment behind the Federal Reserve’s call to action on housing last week with its release of a 26-page white paper.

Mr. Dimon also elaborated on his view that housing markets have neared bottom. “In half the markets in America it is now cheaper to … buy than to rent. Housing is at all-time affordability,” he said. “What you need to see is employment.”

An stronger surge in job growth would boost household formation, which coupled with positive demographics, means that “you’re going to have a turn at one point,” he said. “I don’t know if it’s three months, six months, nine months, but it’s getting closer.”

Mr. Dimon said his bank had made mistakes in handling mortgage foreclosures, and said the bank “should pay for the mistakes we made.” But he added that banks have also offered millions of mortgage modifications, and that banks “are doing it as aggressively as we can.”

He also brushed aside calls for widespread principal reductions, saying that he didn’t agree “that somehow principal forgiveness would be the end-all, the be-all.”

Follow Nick @NickTimiraos

• J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Six Questions on Foreclosure-to-Rental Programs

By Nick Timiraos for WSJ.com

Wednesday’s Journal looked at how one private-equity firm is making a bet on renting out single-family homes acquired through foreclosure. In the coming weeks, federal policy makers could roll out pilot programs to further test the concept. Here’s a look at what’s involved:

What is the government considering?

Government officials solicited more than 4,000 comments from the public last year on potential initiatives that would take foreclosed properties off the market and rent them out. The initiatives are likely to focus only on loans backed by federal entities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration.

There are two different types of programs that officials are likely to consider. Under the first, the FHA could sell properties in bulk to investors who agree to rent them out. Bulk sales have been rare largely because investors tend to demand deep discounts that sellers haven’t been willing to accept.

A more likely option for Fannie and Freddie, if they move forward with any pilot programs, would be to set up pools of properties in which third-party investors would take a stake. Investors could be responsible for handling maintenance and day-to-day operation of the rental pool, with the mortgage-finance giants sharing in some of the returns.

How many homes are we talking about?

Fannie and Freddie held around 180,000 homes at the end of September, down from around 235,000 one year earlier. The FHA held around 35,000 homes at the end of November, down from 55,000 one year earlier.

The drop figures to be temporary because many loans backed by the FHA have fallen into foreclosure, but banks have been slow in taking back homes after they were caught fabricating documents in order to quickly repossess homes.

Why does the idea of renting out homes have appeal?

Officials like the idea for three reasons. The first is that a backlog of foreclosures estimated in the millions could roll onto housing markets in the coming years. The New York Fed estimates that banks and mortgage companies could take back 1.8 million properties in each of the next two years, up from 1.1 million in 2011 and 600,000 in 2010.

Second, there are signs that home prices of traditional homes are stabilizing in some parts of the country, even as distressed sales drag down property values. The gap between prices of traditional home sales and distressed home sales has widened in recent months. For the year ending in November, home prices were down by 4.3% as measured by real-estate firm CoreLogic. But prices were down by 0.6% when distressed sales are excluded.

Third, this is attractive because rents in many parts of the country are beginning to rise.

What parts of the country could see these types of programs?

In a white paper released by the Federal Reserve last week, officials identified 60 metro areas where federal entities have at least 250 foreclosed properties for sale — a scale that could be large enough to justify a rental program. The largest concentrations of foreclosures held by these entities were in Atlanta, with 5,000 units, followed by Chicago, Detroit, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Riverside, Calif., which each have between 2,000 and 3,000 units.

While not all of these properties are good candidates for conversion to rental, preliminary estimates from the Fed suggest that around two-fifths of Fannie’s foreclosed properties could generate yields of 8%, which could be enough to warrant renting rather than selling the property.

Why can’t the private sector do this on its own?

Certainly, private investors have been building up operations in the rent-and-hold arena, and it’s possible that these types of rental transactions could happen anyway without any government involvement.

But there are two main obstacles facing investors: financing and scale. Most foreclosure investing has been done by local investors. But these outfits have faced challenges getting financing to buy enough homes to scale up a viable rental model. Institutional investors, meanwhile, have deeper pockets but banks have largely resisted big bulk sales of homes, making it harder for them to assemble big pools of homes.

Will this program have any impact on home prices?

To do so, the program would need to be quite large, and that isn’t likely to happen for some time. Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America, says the proposed programs run the risk of being too small to have much impact.

Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that moving all foreclosed properties from the for-sale market to the rental market would increase home prices nationally by around 0.5% in the first year and 1% in the second year. Of course, no one is talking here about moving all properties from the for-sale market to the rental market, so this shows the maximum effect of such initiatives. The real effect figures to be far more modest.

Original Post: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/01/12/six-questions-on-foreclosure-to-rental-programs/

Projection: Rents, Incomes to Grow Together

By Matthew Strozier

These are heady days for apartment owners: Demand is growing and supply of new rentals continues to lag. But are landlords getting ahead of themselves? Will a recovery take hold that allows people to afford heftier rents?

It turns out that the outlook isn’t so bad. Research from the real-estate forecasting firm Property & Portfolio Research, which is owned by CoStar Group, says median household income and average rent over the next five years will grow at similar rates. Nationally, PPR projects growth of 16.1% for median incomes between now and 2016, versus 15.6% for rents. (The data are from 54 major markets tracked by PPR.)

But conditions differ from market to market, depending on level of household formation and the pace of income growth. Conditions in places such as Raleigh, N.C., could spur landlords to raise rents at a higher rate in coming years. By contrast, new supply and prior rent growth in Washington, D.C. will likely moderate rental growth there, according to PPR.

Rent-to-income ratios nationally should remain basically steady, and below the prior peak reached in 2001. (Falling home prices and low mortgage rates could make buying a home newly attractive for some renters in coming years, although affordability has done little too boost the housing market so far.)

To be sure, renters won’t be happy to hear that their monthly rent is projected to jump to a national average of $1,436 in 2016, up from $1,242 in 2011, according to PPR. Higher rents and declines in home ownership are helping to fuel investors’ interest in the apartment market, even from developers that usually focus on malls and offices. Construction starts in multifamily in November jumped 25.3% from the prior month, according to the Commerce Department, although construction of new multifamily units remains low on a historical basis.

Readers, what do you think: Where is the rental market headed this year and after?

• CoStar Group,
• Property & Portfolio Research

Original Post: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/01/04/projection-rents-incomes-to-grow-together/