Saturday, January 29, 2011

Here’s How John Paulson Made $5 Billion Last Year

Robert Lenzner for Forbes.com Jan. 29 2011
Original Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/01/29/heres-how-john-paulson-made-5-billion-last-year/


Smart Guys

The secret to the spectacular returns Paulson and his employees reported for 2010 is due to their keeping much of their money- $14.9 billion or 42% of the total assets under management($35 billion)– in the funds. That’s called putting your money to work alongside your clients. That $14.9 billion commitment is revealed in Paulson’s yearend letter to investors.

Some of Paulson’s personal share in his funds must come from reinvesting the $4 billion he made going short against the subprime mortgage bubble in 2007.

The Paulson funds made gross gains in 2010 of $8.4 billion before fees. So, 42% (their share) of the $8.4 billion meant $3.5 billion in gains for Paulson and his employees.

Add to that a 2% fee on $20 billion of capital from investors– $400 million– and then the 20% fee on the total profits made adds another $1.7 billion to the pot shared by Paulson and his team.

By my figuring then, the total take comes to roughly $6 billion before taxes.

Overall, the fund’s strategy made a transition during the year from a short equity bias with a focus on being long distressed securities to a long equity event focus, according to Paulson’s yearend letter.

This growing bullishness on the stock market is due to Paulson’s careful tracking of the equity risk premium measured by J.P. Morgan; the difference between the yield on equities and the yield on bonds. At present, the yield on stocks, the obverse of the price-earnings multiple, is 7-8%– while the yield on 10 year treasuries is only 3.34%. In this comparison the potential return on stocks is double the return on bonds.

Paulson is a buyer of stocks because he sees the equity risk premium in the market as “the highest it has been in over 50 years., indicating to us that equities are due to rise as the current economic environment is by no means the most challenging it has been in 50 years,” he wrote in his yearend letter which was posted Friday on the internet.

Last year, for example, Paulson made a 43% return or over $1 billion on Citigroup– buying shares at $3.20 a share and selling them for $4.60 a share later in the year.

The Paulson Gold Fund was up over 35% on the year, as positions in Anglo Gold, Osisko and GLD, the giant gold ETF all paid off bigtime. Paulson is optimistic that gold will outperform for the next 5 years and is “the ideal vehicle to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar.”

The funds held $20 billion in 40 different distressed situations where most of the companies have “repaired their capital structures.”

He also sold off positions in major banks like Bank of America, and went long Anadarko, the oil and natural gas producer.

Paulson’s hedge fund has piled up gains of 26 billion since inception in 1994– 3rd biggest killing of all hedge funds. Quantum Endowment Fund, begun by George Soros in 1973, has racked up $32 billion in net gains. Renaissance Medallion Fund, founded in 1982 by James Simons, has delivered net gains of $28 billion.

He expects all his funds “to outperform in 2011.”

Monday, January 24, 2011

When Luck Plays a Role in Selling a Home

By ANTOINETTE MARTIN Published: January 20, 2011

Original Post New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/23/realestate/23njzo.html?_r=1&ref=realestate

WITH the last year such a dismal and confusing period for so many home sellers in New Jersey, some inevitably decided along the way to drop one agent and try another.
Susan Stava for The New York Times


Danuta Tyszka of Weichert Realtors recently became the agent for a house on Homestead Street in Clifton, which hadn’t sold after six months with another agent.

.“Some people think the next Realtor will make all the difference, or be the lucky charm, or maybe just provide a fresh start,” said Linda Grotenstein, an agent with Coldwell Banker in Montclair.

“Of course, in today’s market,” she added, “really the most important thing is price.”

Or luck, added other brokers based in towns around the northern part of the state. Some say they see themselves as harder-working than others; several suggested that they were particularly talented at attracting as many people as possible to see a house or staging it in its best light. But each of about a dozen questioned about the logistics of the typical home sale says luck plays an indefinable yet crucial part in finding a solid buyer these days.

Danuta Tyszka, an agent at Weichert Realtors in Wayne, described having listed a four-bedroom two-bath house in Clifton last spring and shown it to 80 prospective buyers, none of whom made an offer. After four months, she advised the sellers to let the listing expire and allow her to relist the house for a lower price — $10,000 less, down from the high $500,000s — to see if “fresh” home shoppers would appear.

“The first people who came to see it made a full-price offer,” she recalled. “I don’t really know that the price drop made that big of a difference. It was more like lucky timing.”

Ms. Tyszka is now marketing another Clifton house, a four-bedroom bilevel at 70 Homestead Street, which was listed with another agent for six months. She picked up the listing in December after meeting the sellers through their son, whose apartment lease she had brokered.

With this house, too, she has dropped the price $10,000, to $469,000 from $479,000 — but lightning has not struck a second time as of yet. “The market is very, very difficult in Clifton,” she said. “I’ve had a couple of sales of other houses fall through just as they were about to close. The main reason seemed to be that people are scared, even when they find a house they like, at a good price.”

Using multiple-listing statistics from 2010, Margaret Miggins, an agent at Keller Williams Realty in Short Hills, found that fewer than 50 percent of listed homes sold within a year. She looked at 16 middle- to high-income communities — in Essex, Union and Morris Counties — in which she markets houses. Comparing the total number of homes listed in each town with the total number of closed sales in 2010, she found that Summit did best, with 48 percent of listings sold. (There were 448 houses listed, and 217 closed sales.)

Chatham and Madison came within a percentage point or two of Summit.

In West Orange, a large community in which sales have been slow, only 24 percent of listed houses were sold (1,001 listings, 240 closed sales).

“Price is, of course, a crucial matter,” Ms. Miggins said. “If you are not willing to change your price, do not switch Realtors. And even if you are, it does not always work.”

State regulations prohibit a broker from poaching another’s active listing, or even suggesting that a better job might be done. Still, it is common practice for them to try and snap up one another’s listings when they expire — typically after six months.

Ms. Miggins says she trolls the Multiple Listing Service Web sites for expired listings, and makes cold calls to homeowners if their names and numbers are listed.

“An agent who really knows an area, and knows how to market a particular house in the best possible way, definitely can make a difference,” she said. But she also said she avoided any sellers who seemed as if they might be inflexible about price.

“Every time we take a listing,” she said, “we spend a lot of money as well as time, on advertisings, Web sites, virtual tours, having floor plans done, setting up a computer on a table by the door so there are pictures scrolling the moment someone walks in — and I don’t want to waste all that.”

Roberta Baldwin, a broker with the Keller Williams NJ Metro Group in Montclair, echoed that sentiment. “It is every agent’s nightmare,” she said. “You put in the time and effort — I’ve even gone so far as to paint and refinish floors for a client — and the house doesn’t sell. Then someone else picks it up, and it goes.”

On the other hand, sometimes it is the real estate professional who decides to leave the client.

Ms. Baldwin said she had occasionally suggested to sellers that they might want to terminate a listing agreement. “If you can see that they are unhappy, and you are unhappy,” she said, “then the best thing to do is to bring that into the open and talk about it. Poor chemistry can occur, or the parties can simply get mired in a situation, although you have done the very best you can, and it is best for everyone to walk away.”

In today’s market, she said, “I think the main reason why some people decide to switch Realtors is that they just don’t know what else to do.”

In Montclair, there are half a dozen high-end homes that have not sold despite multiple price reductions and Realtor switches. One, a Victorian at 183 Grove Street with a third-floor ballroom where Enrico Caruso is reputed to have sung, was marketed by Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty last year with an original asking price of $1.44 million, after selling for $1.4 million in 2007.

After six month, it was listed by Halstead Properties at $1.3 million; it is now listed as a possible short sale at $999,999.

A version of this article appeared in print on January 23, 2011, on page RE9 of the New York edition..

The Hottest New Home Technology - CNBC

The Hottest New Home Technology - CNBC

Friday, January 21, 2011

Cramer: Decline in Home Values Is ‘Over’

“These good numbers can’t be denied anymore,” Cramer said. “The decline in value of homes is over. It ended a year ago, as I told you it did. I await someone, anyone, to come out and admit that they were wrong this summer. But they never will. They have no accountability. It disgusts me. It should disgust you.”

Mad Money's Jim Cramer: Cramer: Decline in Home Values Is ‘Over’ - CNBC

Mad Money's Jim Cramer: Cramer: Decline in Home Values Is ‘Over’ - CNBC

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Trump on China Relations

Donald Trump, Trump Organization chairman/president discusses American businesses failure to compete against China.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Revamped Coney Island Plans Cause a Stir

Coney Island's developer Central Amusement International is opening a new amusement park this coming April, but the company has recently come under fire for evicting long-time Coney Island businesses like Shoot the Freak. WSJ's Joseph De Avila reports.

White Flag? Yahoo Bows to Facebook Connect | The New York Observer

White Flag? Yahoo Bows to Facebook Connect The New York Observer

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Real Estate, Economy and Homes: Builders Still Betting on Mega-Mansions - CNBC

Real Estate, Economy and Homes: Builders Still Betting on Mega-Mansions - CNBC

Is Now the Time to Buy a Retirement Home?

Is Now the Time to Buy a Retirement Home?

A House of Glass Suspended in the Berkshires

Boston architect Warren Schwartz designed and built a modern home of glass, steel and concrete in the Berkshires for himself and his wife Sheila, a longtime violinist for the Boston Symphony Orchestra. The three-bedroom home climbs to more than 30 feet, with views across the wooded hills and a rooftop terrace, where the Schwartzes watch the night sky in the summer.

Generation Blue: Maya Paveza

Sorry Citizens, Goldman Not Selling Facebook Shares To U.S. Investors | The New York Observer

Sorry Citizens, Goldman Not Selling Facebook Shares To U.S. Investors The New York Observer

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

News Hub: Builders Bet Big on Big Mansions

Despite the current housing slump, a small but growing group of developers and investors is building multimillion-dollar mega-mansions for wealthy potential buyers who've never seen them. Candace Jackson explains why.

50 Cent's Penny Stock Plummets | The New York Observer

50 Cent's Penny Stock Plummets The New York Observer

Will the Euro split?

Dennis Gartman: Euro Crisis a 'Virulent Disease' Published: Monday, 10 Jan 2011

1:41 PM ET By: Drew Sandholm Web Producer

Original Post: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41002974/
 
 

The euro could soon unravel, said renown currency and commodities trader Dennis Gartman on Monday, as the European Central Bank threw Portugal a temporary lifeline by buying its bonds.

In the next several years, Gartman thinks the currency will break into a northern euro and a southern euro. Germany, he said, won't stand to continue to fund countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal — all of which have lesser average work weeks, lower productivity rates and lower savings rates, he said.

"A break-up of the euro would be so catastrophic to the economic environment, that China would not want that to happen," countered Brian Kelly, founder of Kanundrum Capital.

Just as the euro is about to unravel, Kelly thinks China will support the troubled currency, buy euro bonds and therefore gain more say in the International Monetary Fund. Gartman added that he, too, doubts China wants a break-up to happen, but also doesn't think China will be willing to spend money to keep it going.

Germany, France and other euro zone countries are pushing for Portugal to seek an European Union-IMF assistance program, as Greece and Ireland had, to prevent spreading contagion to Spain, according to a Reuters report citing a senior euro zone source. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, has denied the report.

The Portugal bailout talk is simply "random noise" and no reason to change your portfolio, said Gartman. Being as the euro is "demonstrably weaker," he thinks "a small bounce is to be expected." If one has no short position, however, he suggests using this rally to get short. Being as he thinks Europe's problems are long-term, he would sell any rallies in the euro.

With more than 30 years of experience as a currency and commodities trader, Gartman is a "Fast Money" contributor and publisher of the widely read "The Gartman Letter."

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Homeless Man With Golden Voice Finds Fame

Ted Williams becomes an overnight internet sensation because of what is being described as a "golden voice."


Facebook To Breach 500 Shareholder Limit, Go Public By April 2012

Original Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/wendytanaka/2011/01/06/facebook-to-breach-500-shareholder-limit-go-public-in-2012/?boxes=Homepagelighttop

by Wendy Tanaka for Forbes.com Jan. 6 2011 - 5:56 pm

Image by AFP/Getty Images via @daylife

The social networking giant said it’s planning to go over the 500 shareholder limit, which would require it to disclose financials to the Securities and Exchange Commission even though it is still a private company, according to a document obtained by the Wall Street Journal.


The private placement document filed with the SEC also indicates that Facebook could become a public company by April 2012.

This is the latest development in the big news earlier this week that Facebook received a $500 million investment from Goldman Sachs and Digital Sky Technologies for a nosebleed valuation of $50 billion.

The document filed puts to rest speculation that Facebook and its investors would sidestep the 500 shareholder rule via a “special purpose vehicle” that would allow Goldman’s high-end clients to invest in Facebook. Goldman plans to raise $1.5 billion for Facebook from this special purpose vehicle.

My colleague Jeff Bercovici says there’s so much scrutiny of Facebook because we don’t expect it to act like a business. We expect it to act like our friend.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Texas Oilman Tired Of Being ‘Victimized’ By Obama Drilling Moratorium, May Soon Invest In Israel

by Christopher Helman for Forbes.com Jan. 5 2011 - 2:56 pm

Original Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/christopherhelman/2011/01/05/texas-oilman-tired-of-being-victimized-by-obama-drilling-moratorium-may-soon-invest-in-israel/?boxes=Homepagelighttop


ATP's Titan platform

When T. Paul Bulmahn was a kid in rural Texas his family of seven sharecropped a garden down the road from their home. Because they didn’t have enough land for cows, they raised goats and made decent money selling their easily digestible milk to the lactose intolerant. “Instead of letting things happen or being a victim of society we made things happen.” What’s more, “I always felt that being able to milk goats growing up gave me a fabulous touch with a basketball.”


Bulmahn, 66, now the chief executive of Houston-based ATP Oil & Gas, is once again figuring out how to make the best out of a tough situation.

Bulmahn says that within weeks he will announce a new oil and gas deal (most likely in Israel) that will enable him to take the first steps in saving his company from what he sees as victimization at the hands of the Obama administration in its overreaching response to the BP oil spill. “What’s being done now under the guise of an emergency which has already passed is not fair,” says Bulmahn.

For a small oil company ($800 million market cap) ATP has built an outsized position in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, operating 18 wells. When BP’s blowout and oil spill occurred last year, ATP had 10 permits outstanding to drill wells and lay pipelines in the gulf. It was also in the process of completing and installing two $600 million platforms to produce oil and gas from new deepwater fields. If ATP could get going on all its permits, says Bulmahn, ATP could stand a good chance of doubling its production to 50,000 barrels per day within a year.

But the deepwater moratorium stopped ATP dead in its tracks. ATP’s drilling plans are not nearly so risky as BP’s was at the Macondo prospect. It wants to use the drilling rig integrated into its new platform called the Titan, to merely drill a sidetrack (like a branch) off of an exisiting well into a reservoir that is already producing from 12,000 feet deep. The government approved ATP’s well location in Mississippi Canyon Block 941 back in June 2008 and ATP filed its permit to drill the sidetrack in July 2009.

Allowing this kind of drilling project should be a no brainer. ATP has supplemented, revised and amended its permit to meet every new request by BOEMRE. What’s more, the Titan platform exceeds all regulatory requirements for safety. Bulmahn is especially proud of the Titan–the first deepwater platform ever to be built in the U.S. with American labor. Designed three years before BP’s spill, Titan features a blowout preventer on the seafloor with two “shear rams” to seal the pipe, plus another BOP system above the water on the platform itself.

Over-engineering the Titan was just common sense to Buhlman, who says that as a small-fry in the deepwater ATP has always recognized it needs to be even safer and more careful than its bigger brethren. ATP has never had a spill, yet, gripes Bulmahn, “BP’s own partner Anadarko has already indicated publicly that there was gross negligence involved. And for that the safe and environmentally sound industry was shut down.”

Bulmahn sees the administration’s actions as a concerted effort to shut down and jeopardize the future of not just BP but “all the companies that had drilled safely and environmentally soundly.”

Can ATP survive even with permits? “The new environment for risk means that managers of most companies are betting the entire company on every well,” says Gary Adams, lead oil and gas consultant for Deloitte. Not many companies have the balance sheet to withstand a possible $30 billion hit for oil spill cleanup. Thus, says Adams, “the Gulf could become a game for only the biggest companies.”

So Bulmahn started looking for options. To ease ATP’s debt load he spun off Titan as a subsidiary and borrowed $350 million against it. More importantly, he began looking all around the world for oil-rich countries “that are desirous of developing their offshore resources, desirous of our expertise, and which would prefer to work with a smaller company like ours that may not have entanglements in other countries.”

Bulmahn won’t yet say where ATP is heading, but rumor is that a deal has been struck that would give ATP rights to develop oil and gas finds offshore Israel, near the area where giant new fields like Leviathan and Tamar have been discovered in recent years.

Going overseas wasn’t Bulmahn’s first choice. “I’m an American first. it’s not where we need to be for our own country’s interest,” he says. But he didn’t see much choice: “I don’t want us ever to be victimized again.”

He wrote as much in a letter to President Obama sent December 20: “Please Mr. President, give ATP a permit to return to work rather than forcing more American jobs to be lost.”

Maybe the President listened. Though the victimization isn’t over yet, on Monday BOEMRE announced a slight crack in the permit logjam. ATP was notified that its sidetrack permit would finally be allowed to proceed as long as ATP satisfied new safety rules.

Whitney Stanco, analyst at MF Global, says that these new rules will likely include a recalculation of a potential worst-case oil and gas discharges that could potentially erupt from all reservoirs intersected by a well if that well were to fail completely with nothing to stauch the flow.

This is far stricter than previous rules, and says Stanco, the companies named on Monday might not be able to get back to drilling if their new worst-case scenario is significantly higher than their old one. Stanco expects permits for brand-new wells, when they finally come, to include a requirement that companies conduct environmental assessments that could take as much as 12 months.

It’s an opening, and Bulmahn will take it. But he’s not happy about it. Delays are costing ATP $330,000 per day for labor and equipment that’s sitting around doing nothing. “For America to be great we need an abundance of energy, of all kinds, not just oil and gas. We need nuclear and solar and windpower and biomass,” says Bulmahn. “We need them in abundance and we need them cheaply to be able to continue to grow our great country and make it greater than it is now.”

Monday, January 3, 2011

New Facebook Fundraising Makes Zuckerberg A Far Richer Billionaire

Original Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/kerryadolan/2011/01/03/new-facebook-fundraising-makes-zuckerberg-a-far-richer-billionaire/?boxes=Homepagelighttop

by Kerry A. Dolan. Shades of Green. Jan. 3 2011 - 1:36 am



Facebook has raised another $500 million from Goldman Sachs and Russian investor Digital Sky Technologies, at a valuation for Facebook of $50 billion, the New York Times reports. That makes Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg worth more than twice the $6.9 billion Forbes said he was worth in September 2010 –when Facebook was valued at $23 billion.

It probably won’t change Zuckerberg’s low-key lifestyle, but the jump in net worth will, as the New York Times noted, put Zuckerberg closer to the ranks of Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, both worth $15 billion as of Forbes’ Sept. 2010 ranking of the 400 Richest Americans.

The latest fundraising will also boost the billionaire fortunes of two other Facebook co-founders, Dustin Moskovitz (worth $1.8 billion on the 2010 Forbes 400) and Eduardo Saverin (worth $1.15 billion on the 2010 Forbes 400). Moskovitz left Facebook in 2008 to start another company, Asana; Saverin helped Zuckerberg found Facebook but stayed on to graduate from Harvard while Zuckerberg and Moskovitz dropped out.

It should also make the Winklevoss twins think twice about appealing their settlement with Facebook. The pair recently told the New York Times that they got a raw deal when settling for $40 million in shares and $25 million in cash with Facebook. As each month passes, the value of those shares just keeps climbing. I’ve said before that they are better off not appealing (See “Twin’s Facebook Fight Rages On“)

The New York Times reported that in the latest fundraising, Goldman Sachs put in $450 million, and Digital Sky Technologies, already an investor in Facebook, put in $50 million. It added that Goldman Sachs will start a special purpose vehicle to let its high-net worth clients invest in Facebook. That will put it in competition with several brokers, including Felix Investments, EB Exchange Funds and GreenCrest Capital, which have been buying shares of Facebook from ex-employees and selling them to accredited (high net worth) individual investors and hedge funds by creating limited liability companies (See “Frenzy for Facebook Shares Heats Up With New Auction“)

Anyone want to wager a guess on when Facebook raises another large round of cash?

Worth It?: Groupon


Daily deals darling Groupon, which sends subscribers free coupons via email, has gotten a lot of buzz in 2010. Is it worth it for consumers to sign up, even if they're not regular buyers of the deals? WSJ's Lauren Goode reports.

Is Bank of America Shaking Off its Woes?

By MIRIAM GOTTFRIED for Barron's MONDAY, JANUARY 3, 2011

Original Post: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203793504576059811600824004.html?mod=BOL_hps_highlight


Shareholders have reason to celebrate the news that the bank has agreed to buy back bad loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.


Are shares of Bank of America (ticker: BAC) finally shaking off their misery? It sure seems that way.

Early Monday, BofA announced that it would take a $3 billion provision to buy back bad loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that were issued by its embattled Countrywide Financial division.

BofA expects to post a $2 billion write-down in the fourth quarter as part of the repurchase agreement and said the charge will have no impact on its Tier 1 capital ratio or tangible equity ratios.

The settlement with Fannie and Freddie—the two leading so-called government-sponsored entities (GSEs)—is a huge step in the bank's effort to clean up problems that surfaced during the housing crisis. The mortgages originated by Countrywide emerged as some of the worst issued during the run-up to the crisis, and BofA has had to handle growing loan losses since it bought Countrywide in 2008.

BofA shares were up 60 cents, or 4.5%, to $13.95 in mid-morning trading Monday as investors cheered the better-than-expected terms of the agreement.

Indeed, the time looks right to hitch a ride on the bank's rebounding fortunes.

The deal represents the removal of one of the biggest issues overshadowing the bank's shares, and gives BofA CEO Brian Monyihan the opportunity to improve the bank's financial picture.

"This is a late Christmas present from [U.S. Treasury Secretary] Tim Geithner to Brian Moynihan," says Christopher Whalen, senior vice president and managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics.

Whalen said he was looking for $40 billion to $50 billion in total loan repurchase expense over the next few years, but after today's announcement, he now thinks the total will be a little under $10 billion—a fraction of what would have been expected based on the losses. This will be a positive for shareholders and bondholders, he said.

"To me, this is just evidence that Washington was listening to the Street," Whalen says. "We now have finality on one of the biggest issues facing Brian Moynihan, and he can now be much more aggressive."

To be sure, BofA's repurchase obligations with Fannie and Freddie are not the only problems facing the bank these days.

Mortgage repurchase demands from non-GSEs are not included in the settlement and could continue to pose a challenge.

In addition, some BofA followers remain concerned about a potential threat from WikiLeaks, the international non-profit organization that publishes leaked documents on its Web site. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has suggested that the site has access to documents that could damage a large bank, and there has been speculation that BofA was the bank in question.

But the Fannie and Freddie issue was the most important one for investors, Whalen says, and its resolution should send them piling into the sector.

Mike Mayo, an analyst with Credit Agricole, says that the issue brings important closure for the bank and could be symbolic of the beginning of a new chapter.

"While the dollar amount of the cost is in the range of what we expected for the GSE-related exposure, the move helps to eliminate the uncertainty as to the ultimate amount and effectively front-loads the GSE-related costs of the next couple years," he wrote in a research note.

"Moreover it shows a willingness of Bank of America to take more control of the situation, and sets a tone for the year by having this move announced on Day 1 of the new year."

Mayo rates BofA at Buy with a $15 price target.

Jeff Harte, an analyst with Sandler O'Neill, also rates BofA at Buy, but sets his price target at $20.

Harte wrote in a note that the provision would reduce his fourth-quarter earnings per share estimate to a loss of 20 cents from a gain of 20 cents, but expects minimal impact on tangible book value.

"This should be a net positive for Bank of America shares," he wrote.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Takeover War Gets Bigger—Blackstone Is In .

By KRIS HUDSON

  • DECEMBER 29, 2010


  • Original post: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203513204576048240134649426.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_MIDDLETopNews

    Blackstone Group LP has jumped into the bidding war for Australian shopping-center owner Centro Properties Group, intensifying what is likely to be one of the largest property takeover battles of 2011.

    Blackstone, among the world's largest buyout firms with $100 billion under management, made a preliminary offer known as an "indicative bid" by the Dec. 17 deadline set by Centro, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The size of Blackstone's bid couldn't be determined Tuesday. The buyout giant primarily is interested in Centro's 600 U.S. properties, the people said.

    The properties, located throughout the country, consist of strip malls and other nondescript neighborhood shopping centers anchored by grocers or discount retailers, like TJX Cos.' TJ Maxx and Marshalls and Kroger Co. Centro valued its U.S. portfolio at $9.5 billion at the end of its fiscal year on June 30.

    Centro also owns 112 malls in Australia and New Zealand.

    Centro Properties Group

    Brooksville Square Shopping Center, in Brooksville, Fla., is among Centro's U.S. properties up for sale.

    Values for U.S. strip centers have rebounded from the lows of the recession but have yet to fully recover. Green Street Advisors estimated the average U.S. strip center suffered a 40% decline in value from the middle of 2007 to the middle of 2009. Since then, it has recovered roughly half of the lost value, according to Green Street.

    Melbourne's Centro was one of the first big real-estate companies to get into trouble in the downturn, failing to refinance $3.4 billion in debt that matured in early 2008. Since then, it has been kept on life support by its creditors.

    Lately, 25-year-old Centro has become the symbol of another trend: the return of deal making in commercial real estate. Although rents and vacancy trends remain weak in many markets, investors have been bidding up values of many properties in anticipation of a recovery. Real-estate returns are also looking more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment.

    Centro is one of the biggest assets on the block, making it especially attractive to companies like Blackstone that have a lot of money to put to work.

    A joint bid for the entirety of Centro also has come from a consortium led by U.S. real-estate investor NRDC Equity Partners LLC and Australian investor Lend Lease Corp., people familiar with those talks said. That bid is in excess of $16 billion, these people said.

    Rival Bid Emerges

    In addition, entities affiliated with shopping-center mogul Chaim Katzman's Gazit-Globe Ltd. have made separate bids for Centro's U.S. and Australian properties, people familiar with the talks said. Gazit teamed with Colonial First State Global Asset Management to offer $7.3 billion for Centro's Australian and New Zealand properties, the people said.

    And Gazit's U.S. affiliate, Equity One Inc., paired with Apollo Global Management LLC to make a joint bid for Centro's U.S. operations, though the amount of that bid couldn't be determined.

    Centro is being advised by UBS AG, Moelis & Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Several smaller suitors, such as Australia's Charter Hall Retail REIT, have made offers for pieces of Centro's Australian and U.S. empires rather than the whole, the people said.

    Centro's fate is complicated by its intricate capital structure, which includes dozens of lenders, cross collateralization and properties owned by syndicates of thousands of Australian mom-and-pop investors.

    Bankruptcy a Possibility

    There remains a chance that Centro could end up in Australian bankruptcy if it can't find a buyout or recapitalization deal that pleases its lenders. Australian bankruptcy, called administration, mandates liquidation rather than reorganization.

    Blackstone has emerged as a major player in many of the biggest deals this year. In the hotel business, the firm participated in a $3.9 billion buyout of bankrupt hotel chain Extended Stay America Inc.

    In retail, Blackstone was part of the group that took General Growth Properties Inc. out of bankruptcy protection and also partnered with mall Glimcher Realty Trust this year to buy malls.

    The pursuit of Centro's U.S. properties is a logical one for Blackstone. The buyout firm was among those that took an initial look at Centro in early 2008, when Centro first opened its books to would-be acquirers.

    Centro's occupancy slipped to 88.3% in the year ended June 30 from 88.7% in the previous year. Its U.S. net operating income declined by 4.2% in the year ended June 30.

    Mr. Scott's Buying Spree

    Since late 2007, Centro has struggled to refinance and pare its $18.4 billion debt load. The debt was amassed during the boom years as former Chief Executive Andrew Scott went on a buying spree that made company one of the world's largest retail landlords. Centro's U.S. portfolio carries debt of $8.1 billion.

    Mr. Scott, who was ousted in early 2008, amassed the company's U.S. portfolio by purchasing real-estate investment trusts New Plan Excel Realty Trust, Kramont Real Estate Trust and Heritage Property Investment Trust Inc.

    Write to Kris Hudson at kris.hudson@wsj.com

    For Sale or Rent: The Governor's Mansion



    Forty-three states have an official governor's mansion, and most state chief executives still call them home. But living rent-free is falling out of favor with some governors -- and with voters

    Monday, December 13, 2010

    Zeitgeist 2010: Year in Review

    US Shoppers Can't Say No to Deals: Survey

    Getty Images

    The number of U.S. shoppers unable to resist buying "impulse" gifts for themselves or others is on the rise this season, due to the plethora of discounts and deals in stores.

    Some 46 percent of U.S. consumers have already purchased an "impulse item" this season, according to an exclusive survey for Reuters by consumer research firm America's Research Group.

    That number increased from 28 percent and 38 percent in two similar surveys conducted earlier in November.

    The impulse buying is due to the attractive price tags offered by retailers, who are having to discount merchandise to lure shoppers.

    About 55 percent of consumers said they found the deals better this year than last year, with only 26 percent saying they appeared to be comparable.

    "What this says is, a lot of people have seen something they've bought they weren't planning on," said Britt Beemer, president of America's Research Group. "You have 55 percent of people saying the deals are better this year, which is why the 46 percent made an impulse purchase."

    Retailers from Macy's to Wal-Mart Stores started promoting merchandise earlier this year, even in advance of Black Friday, the historical kick-off to the holiday shopping season, which attracts droves of shoppers for "door buster" deals.

    Amid high unemployment and a slow recovery for the U.S. economy, shoppers are still tentative about opening their wallets, but recent sales data from the Thanksgiving weekend point to pent-up demand that has boosted revenue.

    Last week, retailers posted their best sales gains in four years in November, although analysts cited the danger of narrowing profit margins from the surge of discounts.

    The National Retail Federation still expects that retail sales will rise by a mere 2.3 percent this November and December, compared with a 1.1 percent rise in 2009 and a 3.4 percent decline in 2008.

    The survey found that 72 percent of consumers planned to shop in the first two weeks of December, up from about 62 percent last year.

    And more people may find a present under the tree for themselves this year, according to the survey.

    Respondents said they were twice as likely to buy gifts for more people this year, than less people.

    That could add up to a lot more cash for retailers, given that the average spent for a gift is $45, said Beemer.

    This year's hot gift is a smart phone and some 16 percent of respondents said they either had already purchased one, or planned to buy one soon.

    The telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. households was conducted on Dec 4 and Dec 5.

    Tuesday, December 7, 2010

    Sharing the Dakota With John Lennon

    Original Post: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/07/nyregion/07appraisal.html
    By CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY New York Times Published: December 6, 2010

    Keith Bedford/Reuters
    The Dakota, on Central Park West and 72nd Street, where John Lennon lived from 1973 and where he was killed 30 years ago.

    Long before its history was marked by the sound of bullets, thousands of fragrant flowers and crowds grievously singing “Imagine,” the Dakota was just another historic Manhattan co-op where among its famous inhabitants lived a musician named John Lennon.



    MacMillan
    John Lennon, Yoko Ono and their son Sean in 1975.

    Before he was gunned down in front of the building 30 years ago Wednesday, he was the seventh-floor resident who brought sushi to the building’s October potluck. He was known as a protective father and an enterprising real estate collector, irking a few neighbors by buying up five apartments in the building.

    One of the many quirks and privileges of living in Manhattan is finding neighbors who are famous poets, celebrated scientists and aging jazz musicians. It was no different for residents at the Dakota, who grew used to seeing the former Beatle pass through the building’s entrance in his fur coat. What made the Dakota different from other buildings, besides its distinctive gothic design, was that so many residents were also celebrities that it afforded Mr. Lennon a certain degree of privacy.

    “This building is chockablock full of famous people,” said Roberta Flack, who lives in the Dakota next door to Yoko Ono. “Most artists like myself tend to keep to themselves.”

    Mr. Lennon’s and Ms. Ono’s life in the Dakota began in 1973, when they were looking to move from their loft on Bank Street. Bob Gruen, who photographed Mr. Lennon when he lived in New York City, said the couple wanted a home with better security.


    Mario Cabrera/Associated Press
    In 1980, after Lennon was killed, the police erected barricades as crowds formed outside the building.


    He said they looked at homes in Greenwich, Conn., and on Long Island before buying the apartment at the Dakota from the actor Robert Ryan, making it past the building’s notoriously picky board.

    While their early days in the Dakota were rocky and Mr. Lennon briefly left his wife for May Pang, Mr. Gruen said that Mr. Lennon returned by late 1974 and the couple settled into the throes of nesting. Ms. Flack recalled hearing them rehearsing music. Their son, Sean, arrived in 1975.

    Like many new homeowners, Mr. Lennon and Ms. Ono renovated their kitchen. Mr. Lennon wanted it to resemble the open spaces many artists had in their lofts downtown. Their home “wasn’t particularly stylish,” recalled Stephen Birmingham, author of “Life at the Dakota: New York’s Most Unusual Address,” which was first published in 1979. But Ms. Flack, who agreed to be interviewed with Ms. Ono’s consent, said the apartment was always uncluttered and tasteful.

    The Lennons socialized with neighbors who also had children. Sean was friends with the children of Warner LeRoy, who owned Tavern on the Green. Paul Goldberger, the architecture critic at The New Yorker, who lived in the Dakota, was invited to a Christmas dinner at the LeRoys’ apartment in the late 1970s and recalled the Lennons being there. He said that the dinner was “warm and very low key,” and that Mr. Lennon chatted with Mr. Goldberger’s future mother-in-law about the music industry.

    Most neighbors remember him being preoccupied with raising his son. Mr. Birmingham said that when he visited, Mr. Lennon had wrapped packing twine around the staircase to protect Sean. Ms. Flack recalls Mr. Lennon taking Sean out for walks in the park with his bicycle.

    “Sean loved his dad,” said Ms. Flack, pouring every inflection into the word “loved.” “There was a lot of holding hands and looking up, and a lot of holding hands and looking down.”

    The Lennons generated the most criticism from neighbors over their real estate purchases. Mr. Gruen said that in addition to two seventh-floor apartments, they bought three other apartments, to use for storage, a work studio for Ms. Ono and an apartment for guests.

    Ms. Ono, accustomed to being a scapegoat for the breakup of the Beatles, absorbed more than her share of disdain inside the building, too.

    “There was a little bit of resentment built up against Yoko, more because she kept trying to buy more apartments,” said Mr. Goldberger, who briefly served on the Dakota’s board. “I think people didn’t dare get mad at John Lennon, so she bore the brunt of any resentment.”


    But Ms. Flack defended their apartment shopping and said she wished she had bought more apartments back then, when they were less expensive. A storage unit once owned by the Lennons sold in 2008 for $801,000.

    “When you’re John Lennon and Yoko and you have all of the money in the world,” Ms. Flack said, “how come he can’t buy all that he wants?”

    The Lennons’ real estate purchases did not color the opinions of one Dakota resident. Leonard Bernstein’s daughter Nina Bernstein Simmons, whose family moved into the Dakota in 1975 when she was 13, said her “great brush with John Lennon” took place at the building potluck when the Lennons brought a platter of sushi. When Ms. Bernstein Simmons stood next to Mr. Lennon at the dessert table, he stared at the sweets and said, “I want something mushy and disgusting,” she said, still remembering his Liverpool accent.

    “I think I muttered something about the pecan pie looking good,” she added.

    Leonard Bernstein enjoyed Mr. Lennon’s poetry so much that at the annual potluck, he made his wife, two daughters and son approach Mr. Lennon and then sing an improvised round he had taught them of Mr. Lennon’s poem “The Moldy Moldy Man.”

    It was one celebrated musician testing his work out on another musician.

    Ms. Bernstein Simmons said, “I think John was amused by it.”

    A version of this article appeared in print on December 7, 2010, on page A29 of the New York edition.

    Wednesday, December 1, 2010

    Groupon Cofounders About To Become Billionaires?

    Original Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/luisakroll/2010/11/30/groupon-cofounders-about-to-become-billionaires/?boxes=Homepagelighttop

    by Luisa Kroll Bounty HunterNov. 30 2010 - 1:57 pm



    In September, we named Eric Lefkofsky, the biggest individual investor in Groupon, as a ”billionaire in the making.” He was one of 15 people we cited as likely to become billionaires by 2015. Fifth on the list, behind folks like Zynga’s Mark Pincus and Facebook’s first president Sean Parker, he was estimated to be worth $750 million.

    Now he could be the first one to officially cross into the billionaire ranks. The New York Times DealBook reported today that Google (nasdaq: GOOG) might strike a deal by end of week to buy Groupon for $5 billion to $6 billion. Based on the lower estimate, Lefkofsky’s 30% stake would be worth $1.5 billion. That valuation might also land his cofounder and the group’s chief executive, Andrew Mason, among the world’s wealthiest. His estimated stake of 20% would be worth $1 billion. (That does not factor in taxes if it turns out to be a cash deal).

    It’s been a crazy couple of years for Groupon, which presents online customers with deep discounts on products or services. (The name blends “group” and “coupon.” ) Groupon raised $135 million in April, the biggest chunk of it from Digital Sky Technologies, the Moscow investment fund behind Facebook and Zynga. Based on that transaction, the 17-month-old company was already valued at $1.35 billion. The only company to reach a $1 billion valuation faster, according to Forbes writer Christopher Steiner, was YouTube (now part of Google), founded in 2005. We featured Groupon on our August cover, calling it the fastest-growing company ever.

    Lefkofsky and Mason met at InnerWorkings, a Chicago firm where Mason worked after college. Lefkofsky was a founder of the outfit, which farms out companies’ printing jobs. Lefkofsky later gave Mason $1 million in angel capital for another startup idea he had. While Mason runs Groupon, Lefkofsky is busy looking for other investments. Earlier this year, he cofounded a venture fund LightBank, which has stakes in nearly a dozen companies. He is also the author of Accelerated Disruption and an adjunct professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

    As for whether the deal will get done, Google said it does not comment on “rumor or speculation.” Calls and/or emails to Groupon and Lefkofsky have not yet been returned.

    Friday, November 26, 2010

    Bank Art Sold In Ireland

    Original Post: http://www.luxist.com/2010/11/25/bank-art-sold-in-ireland/

    by Deidre Woollard (RSS feed) Nov 25th 2010 at 6:02PM


    The Bank of Ireland has raised around $2 million by selling off some of its Irish artworks. The Washington Post reported that Adam's auction house sold off 144 works this week. Bank of Ireland decided to sell the art after a recent bailout but the money isn't going back to the bank, instead the money will be donated to local charities. The auction was the subject of some controversy with protestors outside protesting the banks. The auction house moved the auction to Dublin's Shelbourne Hotel after noting the large amount of interest in the auction. The auction house is examining the bank's remaining works for potential future sales and Ireland's five other Irish banks are considering the sale of their own art collections. The sale follows other bank-owned art sales around the world.

    Monday, November 22, 2010

    How Facebook fixed the social advertising problem

    Original Post: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/22/how-facebook-fixed-the-social-advertising-problem/

    By Kevin Kelleher, contributor November 22, 2010 3:39 PM


    MySpace was once the big kid on the social networking block, but Facebook beat it in part by improving on its social advertising strategy, or lack thereof.




    So much of the discussion around Facebook centers on the way it's shaping our social interactions with others that it's easy to overlook how profoundly the company is rewriting the rules of online advertising. When Facebook's revenue is mentioned, it's usually in the aggregate: The six-year-old company will bring in as much as $2 billion this year and close to twice that next year.

    The bulk of that figure will come from selling ads on its social-network platform – a web technology that was seen as barren soil for ad revenue until a year or so ago. Facebook made social ads pay through a number of tricks. One of the most important innovations was to reach out to the smallest advertisers with self-serve ads on its social-networking site.

    Setting up a Facebook ad is simpler than using Google AdWords. To test the idiot-proof concept, I set up a page for my work as a freelance writer. It wasn't terribly elegant but it did take less than two minutes. In another five minutes, I had created an ad targeted at my own demographic – male, 40s, college grad, living in the San Francisco Bay Area and interested in business or technology journalism.

    Facebook instantly narrowed it down to 4,220 members who might see the ad and recommended I bid between 30 and 45 cents per impression, or between 72 cents and $1.05 per click. Granted, it must have been one of the most thoughtless and ineffective ads in Facebook's history, with no hope for a return on the 30 cents I bid. But it illustrated an important point: In less than ten minutes, any business can not only hang up a virtual shingle on Facebook, it can also became an advertiser.

    Basic tutorials on the site help advertisers design more effective ads. Once they are live, they can receive customizable, granular data on its performance in a simple format that encourages them to experiment with different kinds of ads. Tweaking the location or demographics of users or trying out different text, images and keywords is aided by data comparing the response to alternate ads.

    Facebook benefits from the experimentation too. The company doesn't charge for the data, but the experiments of its legion of advertisers offers the company an unprecedented insight into what makes people click on ads on its site.

    Understanding the behavior of its members on the site is central Facebook's goal of building a robust ad business. Advertisers and consumers interact differently on Facebook than they do in other media: Here, they become friends. MySpace had some limited success in getting its members to be online buddies with bands like My Chemical Romance and TV shows like The Office. But persuading people to connect with a corporation on a social site was a whole new game.

    It works better for some companies than others. Only 3,600 of Facebook's 500 million members "like" Goldman Sachs (GS). But 17.5 million like Starbucks, making it more popular than South Park and the Twilight Saga. And 18 million like Coca-Cola, putting it behind Lady Gaga but ahead of Megan Fox on the list of Facebook's most popular pages. On Starbucks' wall, people write declarations of love to brewed beverages that many lonelyhearts can only dream of.

    Starbucks (SBUX) lets its customers reload their Starbucks cards on Facebook, and when they do a notice appears on their wall and in their friends' news feeds. Facebook has found that people are much more likely to click on a company's page if it appears to be endorsed by their friends.

    Such engagement has driven up Facebook's click through rates. Back in 2007, Facebook was called the "worst-performing site" for ads, with click-through rates of 0.04 percent, or 4 clicks per 10,000 page views. But that started to change last year. Companies that could entice users to their wall pages started to see click-through rates of 6.5 percent. According to Facebook, Japanese airline ANA targeted its ads to travelers who liked Japanese culture and saw click-through rates of 25 percent.

    Facebook knew there was no magic formula for an advertiser to connect with its users. It encouraged companies to experiment. Clorox marketed its new line of Green Works cleaners by asking Facebook members to nominate and vote on "green heroes" in their community who would receive grants. The campaign drew 400 entries and 20,000 votes. A campaign by Levi's offering a 40 percent discount on a new line of clothes brought a 35-percent increase in Facebook members who liked Levi's page, many of whom are still connected.

    Some critics might argue, with good reason, that Facebook's efforts to study its members behavior, to entice them into online relationships with brands and to share that information in their friends' feeds benefit advertisers at the expense of personal privacy. In fact, the closer you look at how Facebook is turning its site into a vibrant ad market, the easier it is to understand why the company has pushed so hard against reforming its controversial privacy policies.

    On the other hand, a lot of people – starting with the 18 million who like Coca-Cola (KO) – have no such qualms. And the revenue that Facebook is expected to bring in this year also suggests the company's approach is working well enough. The world Facebook is creating – a place where individuals sacrifice their privacy in exchange for a friendship with a brand – may not be a utopia, but it is going to be highly profitable.

    Friday, November 19, 2010

    Your Pushy Wife May Be Your Ticket To Billions

    Matt Schifrin Nov. 18 2010 - 9:15 pm

    Original Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/schifrin/2010/11/18/your-pushy-wife-may-be-your-ticket-to-billions/?boxes=Homepagelighttop


    Last week Bloomberg Businessweek ran a cover story on China’s dominant search portal and stock juggernaut Baidu (BIDU). The story reported on Baidu’s smart, cut-throat and compromising approach to becoming China’s Google. In the story there are accusations that Baidu rigs its search results to favor advertisers and kowtows to Communist party wishes. Those who believe in “socially conscious” investing should check their fund holdings for BIDU. (Here is a list of 22 ETFs holding a BIDU).


    However what was really interesting to me about the Baidu cover story was a sentence in the 22nd paragraph of the story. It points out how billionaire CEO Robin Li, decided to become an Internet entrepreneur because his wife Melissa urged him to do so. According to the story “Melissa pulled him(Robin) away from the screening and declared that she would like her husband to be an Internet company founder.“ The incident took place at Stanford University in 1999 while the couple was watching a documentary film featuring an interview with Yahoo (YHOO) founder Jerry Yang. The story goes on to say: “inspired by Yang and pushed by Melissa,” Li decided to build an Internet search engine for China.

    Today Robin Li is worth $7.2 billion and he is China’s second richest person. Baidu’s stock of course has been a super hero for its shareholders. Stock is up 163% year to date and 1,425% in the last five years.

    This got me thinking that an untold number today’s successful men probably owe a great deal of thanks to their wives for being the catalyst or the driver of their great wealth and fame. Strong women behind great men are nothing new. As far back as the Bible’s Rebecca and Esther do we find influential ladies out of the limelight but having a big affect on their spouses choices.

    Of course one of the reasons that I noticed this particular factoid in the Baidu- Robin Li Businessweek story has to do with one of the Warren Buffetts Next Door I profile in my new book, Mike Koza. He readily admits that if not for his wife Maria, a Filipina immigrant he met in the personal ads of the Sacramento Bee, he would not have taken control of his portfolio and began investing on his own.
    Civil engineer Koza was content spending his weekends whitewater rafting in California’s Central Valley and figured that his under-performing Morgan Stanley broker was about the best he could expect. She was the one who shook him out of his comfort zone and got him to to fire his stockbroker and take control of his nest-egg. That was about a decade ago.

    Since then Mike has had an average annual return on his portfolio in excess of 30% per year according to Marketocracy.com and he has turned a $100,000 portfolio into a $3 million nest-egg. I have seen the proof and reviewed his trades.

    Mike is a value investor who spends hours each day online reading about the companies he invests in and listening to downloads of management conference calls. He looks for companies being mispriced by Wall Street and figures out his own intrinsic value for stocks using discounted cash flow analysis. (Click her to watch a video of Mike Koza explaining his investing approach.)

    During the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, Mike made big bets on financial stocks like Radian Group (RAD) and Trina Solar (TSL) and profited handsomely. Right now has significant investments in several Chinese stocks including China Media Express Holdings (CCME) ,a Hong Kong based company has a television advertising network displayed on buses and other urban areas.

    In researching my book I interviewed both Mike and his wife Maria because I knew she was the driving force behind his investing success. Maria has had a hard life. In the Phillipines she grew up in poverty and before meeting Mike she worked for more than a decade as a nurse in the Middle East, and then as a low paid nanny in the U.S.

    Maria is petite and speaks with a soft, heavily-accented voice. Here is what Maria Koza had to say about her role in the family’s success:

    “It’s a team effort. I guess I am the visionary and he is the doer.”

    Comment below if you know of any other great men, whose pushy wives were the catalyst to their success.

    Wednesday, November 17, 2010

    Behold America’s Most Expensive Home: It’s A Shack.

    Original Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/stephanefitch/2010/11/16/behold-americas-most-expensive-home-its-a-shack/?boxes=Homepagelighttop

    by Stephane Fitch Real Estate Advisor Nov. 16 2010 - 6:23 pm


    What’s the most expensive home in the U.S.? Back in May, Forbes reported that it was the Los Angeles home being sold for $150 million by the late television producer Aaron Spelling.

    Not even close.


    The Spelling mansion has 56,500 square feet of space covering 123 rooms, 16 carports and a bowling alley. At about $2,700 a square foot, the house is not so terribly expensive. Throw in the fact that it rests on 4.6 acres in Los Angeles’ Holmby Hills neighborhood, and there’s an argument for this being a pretty decent bargain.


    To find really expensive real estate, think small. We asked our real estate analyst friends at Seattle-based Zillow.com to sift through the priciest realty listings in search of the most expensive one with less than 1,000 square feet of living space. They turned up all kinds of shacks, hovels and cabins trading for more than $1 million, including a half-dozen or so that are more expensive on a per-square foot basis than Spelling’s Manor.

    It probably won’t surprise you to discover that pound-for-pound, the most expensive real estate listing in the U.S. is closer to the beach than the Spelling home. Wealthy homebuyers are obsessed with ocean views. Even if local public-access rules allow beachgoers to stroll by and stare while the beachfront homeowners pour milk on their shredded wheat, they’ll pay a huge premium for beachfront.

    An hour’s drive east of Spelling’s old home lies the tony beach community of Carpinteria. There, you’ll find a humble beach shack that has been sitting at 3485 Padaro Ln. since it was first constructed a century ago. The grandchildren of the man who originally constructed this abode are selling. And at $5.3 million, it may be the most expensive real estate listing in the U.S.

    Officially, this home has just 651 square feet of space–less space than a regulation squash court. The agent who’s handling the sale, John Henderson, explains that the house’s true square footage is 750 square feet. But even so, the asking price on this property works out to $7,060 per square foot, nearly three times what Spelling’s widow wants for their home.

    But how you calculate the value of this Carpinteria home depends on how you look at it. “It’s got probably the smallest master bedroom I’ve ever seen,” Henderson admits. “But it’s on nearly half an acre of land and it’s got 92 square feet of beachfront.” That’s twice the frontage that neighboring properties have, he says. And local officials have okayed a plan to tear down the existing property and replace it with a 2,600 square foot house.

    So maybe it’s not so expensive. If you plunk down $5.3 million for this house and spend $300 a square foot building a high-end home that fits with the approved plans, the $6.1 million total investment will bring your per-square-foot price down to $2,300.

    But it looks like this still may end up being the most expensive home in America anyway. Henderson reports that about half the homebuyers he’s shown the property to say they’d like to keep the existing building in place. The antique shack is small, but polished. It’s charming enough to command a $600-a-night rate from the occasional vacation-home renter during California’s peak season.

    If there’s a lesson in all this, it’s that we often forget how large a contribution land makes towards the value of real estate. There’s a 630 square foot house for sale at 15415 Eastvale Rd. in Poway, Calif. The sellers want $2.3 million. There’s no beach in Poway, so the asking price seems nuts. Alas, the home is sitting on 8.25 acres of land. The land might be subdivided into additional lots someday. The house is an afterthought.

    So if we discount for land value, what is the most expensive home in the U.S., then? Hard to say. The house in Carpinteria still looks pricey. But a more expensive home might be a 702-square-foot condo at 1528 Miramar Bch. in Santa Barbara, Calif. The sellers want $2.2 million and the unit is sitting on just 1,742 square feet of land.

    Here’s one more question about these high-value micro-homes: Why isn’t anybody building houses like these anymore? The habit of homebuilders is to construct the largest homes they possibly can on the land they get. They’re responding to consumer tastes, of course. But consumers seem to be downsizing these days. Maybe it’s time to bring back the 800-square-foot house. Some of the ones Zillow sent along are awfully cute. (Hey, it worked for BMW Group’s Mini, right?)

    Whatever. The point is that there are very small homes for sale at prices far in excess of the $2,700-a-square-foot price at which the Spelling mansion is being offered. I’m not saying we got our story about the Spelling mansion wrong. But I look at these listings and it makes me think.

    What follows is a list that Zillow sent. All are for sale for more than $1 million. All appear to have less than 800 square feet of living space. (I say “appear to have” because the information we have is from public records. When one investigates these high-end micro-homes, it often turns out that they’re a little bigger than what the public records state.)

    319 Pacific Ave., Solana Beach, Calif., asking $2.4 million.
    59-279 Ke Nui Rd., Haleiwa, Hawaii, asking $2.3 million
    1528 Miramar Bch., Unit C, Santa Barbara, Calif., asking $2.2 million
    585 Herring Creek Rd., Vineyard Haven, Mass., asking $2.2 million
    909 S Pacific St., Oceanside, Calif., asking $1.9 million.
    158 Sunset Ln., Mantoloking, N.J., asking $1.9 million

    It's Free to Look: 15 Central Park West's Coveted "D" Line | The New York Observer

    It's Free to Look: 15 Central Park West's Coveted "D" Line The New York Observer

    Tuesday, November 16, 2010

    What You Need To Do With Your Investments Before 2011

    Uriginal Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/investor/2010/11/16/what-you-need-to-do-with-your-investments-before-2011/?boxes=Homepagelighttop

    Nov. 16 2010 - 9:34 am Posted by Chris Barth



    Investors looking to make the most of their money should pay attention to the calendar; the end of the year is approaching, and it brings with it potential tax repercussions. With favorable tax rates on capital gains in danger of expiring in 2011, investors have a month and a half to crunch the numbers and make a hold ‘em or fold ‘em decision.


    Barbara Weltman, an expert from tax resource JK Lasser, has some advice for how to make the most of your 2010 investments, whether gains or losses.

    Tax Rates

    Central to the decision-making process are potential spikes in tax rates after year’s end. Currently, capital gains from the sale of long-term securities—as well as most ordinary dividends on stocks and equity mutual funds—have a 15% maximum tax rate for higher income individuals and no taxes at all for the bottom two tax brackets. If President Bush’s 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are not extended, the lowest tax brackets would no longer be exempt, and the cap on the upper tax brackets would increase. While the recent Republican surge makes it less likely that tax rates will change in 2011, particularly for the wealthy, the likelihood of a compromise being pushed through Congress before the end of this year has increased.

    “Capital gains rates won’t be any lower next year,” Weltman points out.

    Whatever happens during this session of Congress, you can be sure that the tax rates won’t decrease. An extension of present rates could keep taxes down through 2012, but it is highly unlikely they will drop below current rates in the foreseeable future. If Congress fails to take action—an admittedly unlikely situation—the tax rate for upper tax brackets could more than double, reaching as high as 39.6% taxes on qualified dividends.

    So what should you, the investor, do before New Years?

    Harvest Gains Before Year-End

    While tax rates should not be the sole impetus for investment decisions, keeping an eye on policies and potential tax rate changes can help you make sound decisions, particularly with the potential for increased rates in the future.

    If you find yourself on the positive end of things, you may want to consider selling appreciated securities to harvest gains that will be taxed at current low rates. Creating these capital gains now allows you to claim them at what Weltman calls, “probably the lowest rates ever.” There are no restrictions on reacquisition of stocks sold for gain, so you can feel free to sell at current rates and reacquire whenever you so choose, letting you increase your basis while maintaining your tax position.

    There are other ways to capitalize on the current tax rates before they expire, in addition to selling for personal gain.

    "If you provide support for your parent who is in the 10% or 15% tax bracket, you might want to give appreciated securities rather than cash and allow your parent to sell the securities and use the proceeds for support,” Weltman says.

    With regards to losses, there is no real tax advantage in acting before year-end. While realizing losses may allow you to reinvest and strengthen a weak portfolio, it is otherwise a wash whether that realization occurs in 2010 or 2011. In fact, investors predicting a bullish market may want to keep their losses unrealized in hopes that they become gains.

    Monday, November 15, 2010

    Facebook Passes EBay in Value, Becoming No. 3 U.S. Web Company


    November 15, 2010, 12:30 AM EST By Brian Womack


    Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Facebook Inc.’s estimated worth is now bigger than EBay Inc.’s valuation, making it the third- largest U.S. Internet business and underscoring the growing allure of social media for investors.

    Facebook’s stock is trading at more than $16 on SecondMarket Inc., an exchange for shares of privately held companies, said a person familiar with the latest pricing data. That would put its worth at about $41 billion, more than EBay’s $39.3 billion valuation on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Facebook only trails Amazon.com Inc., worth $74.4 billion, and Google Inc., valued at $192.9 billion, among U.S. Internet companies.

    “There is certainly good cause for Facebook to have a tremendous valuation,” said Augie Ray, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc. in San Francisco. “It has in fairly short order -- just a couple of years -- gone from being a very niche site to one where the majority of Americans spend a great deal of their online time.”

    Facebook, the world’s largest social-networking site, previously vaulted past other Internet pioneers, such as Web portal Yahoo! Inc. and travel site Expedia Inc. By providing a platform for people to share everything from baby photos to what they had for lunch, Facebook has attracted more than 500 million users and a horde of advertisers hoping to reach them. It’s also a way for people to stay in touch with friends and form new connections.

    IPO Signals?

    The valuation doesn’t indicate what Facebook will be worth in an initial public offering, which could be years away, said Lise Buyer, founder of Class V Group, an IPO consulting firm in Portola Valley, California.

    “It could be a bargain at $41 billion -- we won’t know until it trades on the public markets,” she said.

    The value of Facebook on New York-based SecondMarket has more than tripled in the past year, according to the person, who declined to be identified because SecondMarket doesn’t publicly release trading data. SharesPost Inc., another private exchange, estimated Facebook was worth $40.9 billion last week. That’s up almost 50 percent in the past month, according to the Santa Monica, California-based company.

    Valuations of closely held companies are less precise than those of their public counterparts because trading is limited to a smaller pool of investors and fewer shares are available. Facebook also doesn’t disclose financial information.

    ‘Fundamentally Speculative’

    “We understand there is a great deal of interest and curiosity in our past and potential financial performance,” said Jonathan Thaw, a spokesman for Palo Alto, California-based Facebook. “However, external attempts to forecast revenue or value the company are fundamentally speculative and should be treated as such. We’re focused on building our business to be successful over the long term.”

    The company expects sales of at least $1.4 billion in 2010, up from about $800 million last year, two people familiar with the matter said earlier this year. Facebook may not have an initial public offering until 2012 or later, giving it time to focus on growth, the people said.

    EBay, while still expanding, depends on its online marketplace -- a more mature area than the social-networking industry, said Aaron Kessler, an analyst at ThinkEquity LLC in San Francisco. Analysts estimate that EBay’s revenue will grow 5 percent this year to $9.14 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

    Alan Marks, a spokesman for San Jose, California-based EBay, declined to comment.

    Advertiser Growth

    Facebook makes money from ads and a credits program, which lets people buy virtual items in online games. The company has attracted such advertisers as Coca-Cola Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Adidas AG. It also has maintained ad prices, even as its user growth creates a surge of space for commercial messages, Facebook said in August.

    “As an advertising platform, Facebook has been proven,” said Mark Mahaney, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in San Francisco.

    Facebook’s users have increased by more than two-thirds since September 2009, when it had 300 million members. In March, the company surpassed Google as the most visited Web site in the U.S., according to research firm Hitwise.

    At AdParlor Inc., which helps companies advertise on Facebook, some customers are spending $20,000 a day on the social-networking site.

    Facebook lets companies craft campaigns to reach specific customers by age, location, hobbies and other attributes, making it more appealing to marketers. They’re also eager to reach all those millions of users, said Hussein Fazal, chief executive officer of Toronto-based AdParlor.

    “It’s getting more attention,” Fazal said. “It’s the sheer amount of volume on the site.”

    --With assistance by Joseph Galante in San Francisco. Editors: Nick Turner, Tom Giles

    To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at bwomack1@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net

    Weekend Update: Jimmy Fallon Buys at 34 Gramercy Park East--Again! | The New York Observer

    Weekend Update: Jimmy Fallon Buys at 34 Gramercy Park East--Again! The New York Observer

    Friday, November 12, 2010

    America's real mortgage rate

    November 12, 2010 12:05 pm

    Record low mortgage rates? Too bad no one is taking advantage of them. Most homeowners still pay around 6% for their loans.




    Mortgage rates dropped to another record low this week following the Fed's move to pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the U.S. economy. Though officials hope that buying Treasuries with newly-printed money will give the slow-growing economy a big boost, the move likely won't give today's homeowners much relief.

    Now is one of the cheapest times in decades to finance a home, but few are actually locking in record low mortgage rates. This isn't just because many don't qualify for refinancing as home prices plummet and banks continue to enforce tighter lending standards.

    It's also because many owners who locked in relatively low rates between 2003 and 2005 don't think it's worth refinancing, according to a U.S. Federal Reserve study of the mortgage market released in September. This is a factor that has largely been overlooked.

    It's true millions have been trying to redo the terms of their home loans to reduce their monthly payments. Yet a sizable group also thinks their current interest rates are at least bearable – they don't want to spend the money or time to take out a new loan for only slightly lower rate.

    Mortgage rates are at their lowest since at least 1971. The rate for a 30-year fixed loan fell to 4.17% in the week ended Thursday from 4.24%, according to Freddie Mac (FMCC). The average 15-year rate declined to 3.57% from 3.63%.

    But interest paid on the vast majority of home loans is much higher than the record rates, according JPMorgan, which tracks the outstanding U.S. mortgages by major lenders including Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (FNMA). As of October 31, only about 16% of fixed-rate mortgages and 12% on floating mortgages paid between 4% to 4.99%.

    A relatively bigger proportion, about 27%, are adjustable rate mortgages that fluctuate with the market and pay a lower rate ranging between 3% to 3.99%. Still, at least half of outstanding home loans still pay 5% or higher regardless of whether a fix or floating rate.

    Historically when rates have dropped significantly, there's typically a flurry of refinancing.

    And indeed, that happened recently when the average annual rate for a prime-quality 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell abruptly at the end of 2008 and through 2009, falling below 5% in April and May. Refinancing boomed, peaking to more than 645,000 loans in May 2009 before dropping back to monthly levels similar to those seen in 2006 and 2007, according the Fed's report.

    But the recent surge in refinancing doesn't compare to what was seen historically – it's in stark contrast to the levels seen between 2001 to 2003 when rates fell sharply. In 2003 when rates were slightly more than 5%, the volume of refinance loans rose to more than 15 million, markedly greater than volumes in 2009 of about 5.8 million loans.

    "There's a lot of head scratching right now as to why people aren't refinancing," says Freddie Mac Chief Economist Amy Crew Cutts. "The applications are high but the closings are low."

    Cutts points to various factors, including high unemployment, home values falling well below the balances of mortgages and stricter lending standards at many major banks.

    Whatever the reason, it appears homeowners aren't benefiting much from the Fed's policy prescription to accelerate the economic recovery. Who knows how low mortgage rates will go or if it will even matter months from today.

    Source: JPMorgan

    Tags: housing, Economy, Ben Bernanke, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, mortgages, US Federal Reserve