Apple To Dominate Tablet Market Through 2015, Google Takes Smartphones

Original Post: http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/04/11/apple-to-dominate-tablet-market-google-takes-smartphones/

Agustino Fontevecchia for Forbes.com Apr. 11 2011 - 12:14 pm

Steve Jobs and his iPad - Wikipedia

Apple will remain firmly in control of the tablet market through 2015, according to market research by Gartner, which also shows Google’s Android will take the baton from Nokia’s Symbian to dominate the smartphone market through the same time period. Experts agree, though, that it will be strong ecosystems, allowing for tablets and smartphones to deliver a combined experience, which will take the day, possibly weakening Research in Motion’s capacity to deliver in a new environment.


Media tablet sales are growing exponentially, according to Gartner’s figures, with approximately 70 million units to be sold in 2011, about 300% more than in 2010. By 2015, Gartner expects tablet sales to almost hit 300 million. The big winner here is Apple, with a clear hold on the market. From the report:

Apple iPad did to the tablet PC market what the iPhone did to the smartphone market: re-invented it. A media tablet is not just a different form factor to perform the same tasks that can be done on a PC. Tablets deliver a richer experience around content consumption, thanks to the ecosystem they support. The richer the ecosystem, the stronger the pull for consumers.

Software over hardware is the simple axiom presented by analysts at Gartner. Platform flexibility and an extensive ecosystem of applications will be the key to market share. That is precisely why Apple, with its iPads, has managed to hold 83.9% of the market in 2010 and will still keep 69% of the market while growing its sales more than three-fold to 48 million by the end of 2011. As the market consolidates, Apple will see its share gradually fall to 47% by 2015, selling a total of 139 million units that year.

Apple’s competition, though, hasn’t gotten the game right, Gartner’s Carolina Milanesi explained. “Many [tablet makers] are making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone, as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience. Tablets will be much more dependent on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realize that the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple,” noted Milanesi.

Google’s Android and Research in Motion’s QNX will be the other two big players in the media tablet market, according to Gartner’s data. Android will grow its market share from about 20% in 2011 to 39% in 2015, leveraging its decision to not open up its Honeycomb tablet operating system, preventing market fragmentation and slowing the price decline of Android-based devices. “The new licensing model Google has introduced with Honeycomb enables Google to drive more control, allowing only optimal tablet implementations that don’t compromise quality of experience,” said Gartner’s Cozza. (Read Meet The Google For High Frequency Trading Machines” Selerity).

Research in Motion will take its tablet market share to 10% by 2015, as it moves its devices onto their new QNX ecosystem in 2012. RIM is set to release its PlayBook tablet, which will run on the same operating system, in its attempt to gain ground in the tablet market. While this will provide a “consistent experience across its whole product portfolio and create a single developer community,” the company will struggle attract developers, which is the game changer for Gartner’s experts. (Read RIM Stock Tanks As CEO Balsillie Plays Down Q1 Worries).

It’s not all about tablets, though, as smartphones will play their part in the upcoming device wars. As the interaction between smartphones and tablets increases, with matching operating systems and the capacity of sharing applications and data across platforms, consumers will begin to focus on OS rather than on brand.


That is where Google will be able to leverage its position. Being an open OS in the smartphone environment, Android devices will come to dominate the market by the end of 2011 and increase its share in 2012. As Nokia retires its Symbian OS to introduce devices powered by Microsoft’s Windows Mobile OS, Android devices will go on to make up 38.5% of the market by the end of 2011 and grow to 49.2% of the market by 2012. From the report:

“As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers”, Ms. Cozza said. “Android’s position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets.”

Apple’s iOS will end 2011 with about 19.4% of the market, as the company looks maintain margins rather than pursue market share. Keeping prices high, Apple iPhones will see their market share gradually fall to 17.2% by 2015. Apple will still lag in the mid to low-cost segment, failing to garner strength outside of mature markets such as the U.S. and Western Europe.

Interestingly, Nokia and Microsoft will perform well in the period, taking their share from 5.6% in 2011 to 19.5% by 2015, outpacing both Apple and RIM. BlackBerry phones will progressively lose market share as competition eats into their business and consumer segments. RIM devices will go from dominating 16% of the market in 2010 to 11.1% by 2015.